We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 8-5 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Zach Allen
1.1 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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