We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 8-6 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
GB
LA
21
30
Offense
LA
Defense
LA
Called it ✓
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
no data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
