We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 7-7 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.02 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton◄
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Chuck Clark◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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