We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 11-4 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.02 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Elite
3.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
no data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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