We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 11-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
SF
17
26
Offense
SF
Defense
SF
Missed the winner
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones◄
0.6 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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