We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 12-3 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
-0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid
0.58 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average
no data
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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