We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-5 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CLE
NO
17
27
Offense
NO
Defense
NO
Called it ✓
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Tyler Shough
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.00 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
no data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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