We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 13-3 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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