We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.19 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson◄
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton◄
0.03 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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