We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CIN
LAC
21
32
Offense
LAC
Defense
LAC
Called it ✓
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.02 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Elite
3.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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