We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
GB
17
27
Offense
GB
Defense
GB
Missed the winner
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.18 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith◄
-0.12 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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