We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 12-3 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
LAC
17
28
Offense
LAC
Defense
ARI
Called it ✓
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.02 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
