We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 9-4 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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