We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 8-6 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
KC
18
32
Offense
KC
Defense
ARI
Called it ✓
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.10 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Boye Mafe◄
0.2 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
