We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 11-4 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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