We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-1 · full slate 9-4 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
IND
HOU
22
31
Offense
HOU
Defense
HOU
Missed the winner
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
