We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 10-3 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
SF
PHI
18
28
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Called it ✓
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.05 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson◄
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
