We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-5 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
JAX
IND
28
20
Offense
JAX
Defense
JAX
Called it ✓
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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