We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-2 · full slate 6-8 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
DEN
18
27
Offense
DEN
Defense
DEN
Missed the winner
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.08 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
no data
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
