We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 7-7 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither◄
0.5 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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