We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.10 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Elite
4.7% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average
no data
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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