We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 14-2 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
IND
BAL
17
26
Offense
BAL
Defense
BAL
Called it ✓
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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