We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 8-8 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.02 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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