We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 12-4 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
IND
JAX
15
27
Offense
JAX
Defense
JAX
Called it ✓
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
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All-AccessBest value
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All 5 sports
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