We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 8-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
WAS
NO
20
30
Offense
NO
Defense
NO
Called it ✓
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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