We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 12-2 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LAC
JAX
15
24
Offense
JAX
Defense
JAX
Called it ✓
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.05 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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